Futurist; president of the Institute for the Future

Roy Amara

Amara is remembered for the observation that we overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.

Essential reading: Amara's Law
Models in this guide: 1

No. 011Ways of Thinking
Amara's Law
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run, so plan for both the hype and the structural change.